Commissioners in Jefferson County, Alabama voted today to file the largest U.S. municipal bankruptcy after failing to reach a deal with bondholders. JPMorgan Chase & Co. financed most of the debt to fund a sewer renovation will probably take the biggest loss. Around $3.14 billion of bonds are outstanding.
The commissioners stood up for their constituents when they bucked the banks by not imposing as much as an 8.2% increase in sewer-rates. Alabama's most populous county passes the notorious record formerly held by California's Orange County in 1994. Fears will likely rise in Wall Street over the $2.9 trillion of U.S. municipal bonds that are outstanding.
This pending bankruptcy has cast a shadow over the county and Alabama's largest city, Birmingham. The allegedly corrupt sewer project would have meant residents would pay for the skyrocketing fees for the outstanding debt. The Jefferson bankruptcy will be the eleventh municipal bankruptcy this year.
The corruption stems from two JPMorgan bankers who allegedly made $8 million in undisclosed payments to friends of commissioners to secure the bank's role in the financing of the project. In 2009, JPMorgan settled with the Securities and Exchange Commission for $722 million.
2430 N Cannon Dr
Chicago, IL 60614
Neighborhood: Lincoln Park
(773) 880-1266
Alabamadirectory.org provides relevent links information to Alabama arts, real estate, university, health, culture, finance, investment, travel, business and more.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Can a bankruptcy stop my house from being foreclosed on in Alabama? Review
Yes. You may be able to save your house from foreclosure by filing a Chapter 13 bankruptcy. A Chapter 13 bankruptcy allows you to put your arrearage (the payments you have missed) in your Chapter 13 plan and pay them back over the term of your plan (usually 5 years). You will have to pay the entire amount of your arrearage back over this period of time. This in effect “catches up” your mortgage payments, keeping the mortgage company from foreclosing.
Other than allowing you to catch up your back payments the bankruptcy court cannot affect the terms of your mortgage. Therefore, beginning the month after you file for bankruptcy you will have to begin making your regular monthly mortgage payments. This can be difficult since you were already missing payments and now you are to begin making your mortgage payments again plus a payment to the bankruptcy court. This will require some serious budgeting and discipline, but it will be very important for you to make both of these payments. While there may be some ways to prevent foreclosure if you miss payments post-petition (i.e. after your bankruptcy has been filed), it will be difficult. You will also have to maintain your homeowner’s insurance coverage.
To stop the foreclosure your bankruptcy will need to be filed prior to the foreclosure sale. The 2005 amendments to the bankruptcy laws have made the preparation of bankruptcy petitions much more time consuming. I would recommend you see an attorney immediately and not later than 1 week prior to the foreclosure sale.
The bottom line is while it may take some cutting back on other expenses, a Chapter 13 bankruptcy can save your house in Alabama from foreclosure.
Armitage Ave & Orchard St
Chicago, IL 60614
Neighborhood: Lincoln Park
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Alabama, Birmingham, and Huntsville Real Estate Market in 2012-Forecast Review
While the Real Estate market adage is “Location, Location, Location” I submit that based on this study that maybe it should be “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs”
Over the years, I have often been asked to predict what will happen in the future in the residential real estate market. I have generally resisted providing answers to this, pointing out that the current data which I provide gives some pretty strong hints.
However, in doing some consulting work I have come across some useful correlative data that holds promise for quantifiable, accurate, projections of future real estate sales.
While it is important to keep the adage “correlation is not causation” in mind, correlations can be useful and dependable if they pass the “common sense” test.
I have found that for a given area, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Statistics can reasonably and reliably predict future sales. This makes sense in that buying homes is not a spur of the moment decision, but rather influenced by consumer future expectation, which is nicely captured and influenced by the unemployment rate.
To date, I have tested this concept in multiple markets with similar results. I expect that additional implementation will show similar predictive capabilities.
Since both the real estate and labor market have large seasonal swings, I chose to use the January unemployment rate to project the entire year’s transaction volume. I then spread the volume over the individual months, based on the historical percentage of sales that a given month has in a year. The percentage sales in a month holds steady in “normal” years. I have currently used 2004-2011 to arrive at the percentage sales per month. I suspect that some inaccuracy comes from including 2010 when we had the really abnormal melt-down followed by the extraordinary tax credit. Rather than continue adjusting numbers, I have chosen to publish these preliminary findings in the hope that others can help with the methodology.
Summarizing the findings:
How Unemployment correlates to Real Estate Sales from 2004-2010:
Correlation rate:
Statewide 80%
Birmingham 83%
Huntsville 73%
I have also tested a few other areas, outside Alabama, with similar results.
Interestingly, when I included years before 2004, correlation rates went down. I suspect that this is due to the way financing changed in 2004. I also suspect that years before 2004 will show strong correlation, and that years post 2004 will continue to show even more correlation just not across the 2004 “divide”. This remains for more research. By the way I attempted to find some correlation based on mortgage interest rates. In short, there was none. There may be some very short term impact from interest rates, but nothing close to the jobs market.
Based on the initial correlations a linear regression can predict sales for 2011, and preliminarily for 2012 (based on the estimated January 2012 unemployment rate) for the same three markets.
Market 2010 (actual) 2011 (proj) 2012 (proj)
Statewide 36,234 37,407 39,429
Birmingham 12,235 12,736 13,430
Huntsville 8,543 8,321 8,507
The statewide totals are via the Alabama Center for Real Estate
The monthly projected results compared to the actuals for 2011for Birmingham are as follows:
2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
proj 755 877 1135 1137 1239 1314 1180 1191 1090 933 914
actual 683 773 1072 1022 1106 1255 1237 1224 1145 983 944
%error -10.5 -14.9 -5.9 -11 -12 -4 4 2.7 4.8 5 3
Cumulative error 2.9
As you can see this is quite encouraging. The cumulative error for 2011 projections is under 3% for 2011. I believe that excluding 2010, to calculate the monthly changes, due to the tax credit impact will improve the monthly accuracy.
Why might this be useful?
If the results during the year do not unfold as projected one should be looking for the reasons such as the tax stimulus or similar government action. It is also likely that other impacts and shocks to consumer expectations will cause the market to react in ways that are not accounted for in the projections. One can think of major disasters such as the coastal oil spill and multiple weather events. I have not yet tried to see how the coastal markets can be projected.
San Francisco, CA 94114
(415) 424-8912
Over the years, I have often been asked to predict what will happen in the future in the residential real estate market. I have generally resisted providing answers to this, pointing out that the current data which I provide gives some pretty strong hints.
However, in doing some consulting work I have come across some useful correlative data that holds promise for quantifiable, accurate, projections of future real estate sales.
While it is important to keep the adage “correlation is not causation” in mind, correlations can be useful and dependable if they pass the “common sense” test.
I have found that for a given area, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Statistics can reasonably and reliably predict future sales. This makes sense in that buying homes is not a spur of the moment decision, but rather influenced by consumer future expectation, which is nicely captured and influenced by the unemployment rate.
To date, I have tested this concept in multiple markets with similar results. I expect that additional implementation will show similar predictive capabilities.
Since both the real estate and labor market have large seasonal swings, I chose to use the January unemployment rate to project the entire year’s transaction volume. I then spread the volume over the individual months, based on the historical percentage of sales that a given month has in a year. The percentage sales in a month holds steady in “normal” years. I have currently used 2004-2011 to arrive at the percentage sales per month. I suspect that some inaccuracy comes from including 2010 when we had the really abnormal melt-down followed by the extraordinary tax credit. Rather than continue adjusting numbers, I have chosen to publish these preliminary findings in the hope that others can help with the methodology.
Summarizing the findings:
How Unemployment correlates to Real Estate Sales from 2004-2010:
Correlation rate:
Statewide 80%
Birmingham 83%
Huntsville 73%
I have also tested a few other areas, outside Alabama, with similar results.
Interestingly, when I included years before 2004, correlation rates went down. I suspect that this is due to the way financing changed in 2004. I also suspect that years before 2004 will show strong correlation, and that years post 2004 will continue to show even more correlation just not across the 2004 “divide”. This remains for more research. By the way I attempted to find some correlation based on mortgage interest rates. In short, there was none. There may be some very short term impact from interest rates, but nothing close to the jobs market.
Based on the initial correlations a linear regression can predict sales for 2011, and preliminarily for 2012 (based on the estimated January 2012 unemployment rate) for the same three markets.
Market 2010 (actual) 2011 (proj) 2012 (proj)
Statewide 36,234 37,407 39,429
Birmingham 12,235 12,736 13,430
Huntsville 8,543 8,321 8,507
The statewide totals are via the Alabama Center for Real Estate
The monthly projected results compared to the actuals for 2011for Birmingham are as follows:
2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
proj 755 877 1135 1137 1239 1314 1180 1191 1090 933 914
actual 683 773 1072 1022 1106 1255 1237 1224 1145 983 944
%error -10.5 -14.9 -5.9 -11 -12 -4 4 2.7 4.8 5 3
Cumulative error 2.9
As you can see this is quite encouraging. The cumulative error for 2011 projections is under 3% for 2011. I believe that excluding 2010, to calculate the monthly changes, due to the tax credit impact will improve the monthly accuracy.
Why might this be useful?
If the results during the year do not unfold as projected one should be looking for the reasons such as the tax stimulus or similar government action. It is also likely that other impacts and shocks to consumer expectations will cause the market to react in ways that are not accounted for in the projections. One can think of major disasters such as the coastal oil spill and multiple weather events. I have not yet tried to see how the coastal markets can be projected.
San Francisco, CA 94114
(415) 424-8912
Commuting Helena Review
The Birmingham Business Journal reported that the Business Journal "On Numbers" said that Helena Alabama (for it size) has the worst (longest) commute. Also to rank poorly in the study was Alabaster, Pleasant Grove, Center Point, Moody, Pelham, Trussville, Hueytown and Fairfield all ranked in the bottom 10 in Alabama".
The original article said their numbers were based on the "2009 American Community Survey, which was conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau". In case you are wondering which is the best city ...Altus Okla. I goggled Altus to find out why it has the shortest commute. "Altus is home to Altus Air Force Base and world class companies including Bar-S Foods Co., and Altus Athletic Manufacturing". Which means all their jobs are within 15 minutes of their homes (Unless you live on base then it is closer).
So it looks like most of us drive a decent distance to work. It would be nice to work in Helena instead of driving to Jefferson County. You could have lunch with your children or just run home to watch tv.
Alabama St and 25th St
San Francisco, CA 94110
Neighborhood: Mission
(987) 267-3892
The original article said their numbers were based on the "2009 American Community Survey, which was conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau". In case you are wondering which is the best city ...Altus Okla. I goggled Altus to find out why it has the shortest commute. "Altus is home to Altus Air Force Base and world class companies including Bar-S Foods Co., and Altus Athletic Manufacturing". Which means all their jobs are within 15 minutes of their homes (Unless you live on base then it is closer).
So it looks like most of us drive a decent distance to work. It would be nice to work in Helena instead of driving to Jefferson County. You could have lunch with your children or just run home to watch tv.
Alabama St and 25th St
San Francisco, CA 94110
Neighborhood: Mission
(987) 267-3892
Monday, December 26, 2011
Alabama nabs foreign auto execs in immigration crackdowns Review
What’s keeping Alabama’s economic development officials awake at night?
Perhaps it’s the new propensity of state lawmen to snag high-ranking executives of foreign carmakers in immigration enforcement dragnets.
Over the years, Alabama put the welcome mat out for the car manufacturers to come to the state and create thousands of well-paying jobs. But strict enforcement of Alabama’s new immigration ID laws has led to the citing of auto execs from Mercedes Benz and Honda, both of which have plants in the state.
The message to the world: The Yellowhammer State is quite selective in its exercise of Southern hospitality.
First to be arrested was a German director of the Mercedes-Benz factory in Tuscaloosa for failing to carry his driver’s license. Next came the detention of Honda manager Ichiro Yada at a checkpoint in Leeds, Ala,
Yada produced a passport, U.S. work permit, and international driver’s license, none of which satisfied Leed’s law officers . They wrote Yada a ticket and released him on a signature bond.
Police say Yada should have had in his possession either an Alabama license or one issued by Japan. The charges were dismissed only when Yada’s attorney faxed a copy of his Japanese driver’s license to the judge.
The mayor of the city of Leeds said the citation should remove any doubt “we’re going to enforce the laws of state of Alabama.”
The earlier arrest of 46-year-old Mercedes executive Detlex Hager occurred after police suspected his rental car was missing a registration tag. Police now say the car lacked a license tag.
The state’s new immigration law requires anyone stopped by police to show proper identification. After police pulled Hager over, they asked for his papers. All Hager could produce was his German identification. His passport, which shows he was legally in the country on a visa, was back at his hotel room.
Police arrested and charged him under the immigration law for not having the proper paperwork. They released him on his own recognizance after a colleague went back to his hotel room and retrieved his paperwork, news reports say. He has a court date set in the next few weeks to determine his ultimate punishment.
Published reports show 66 people have been arrested in Tuscaloosa alone since the law went into effect Oct. 1.
Mercedes started its first full year of production in Alabama in 1998, when it produced 68,800 vehicles. It was the first automaker to take a gamble on producing cars in the state.
Now Alabama has two more auto assembly plants run by foreign automakers Honda and Hyundai. Toyota and International Diesel produce engines in the state. Further, more than 90 automotive suppliers are in Alabama that serve either Hyundai, Honda or Mercedes.
The Decatur Daily News said in an editorial that the arrest of the Mercedes executive shows the folly of the state’s harsh immigration ID law. “The people of our once-hospitable state should send a thank-you card to the Mercedes Benz executive arrested Friday for violation of the immigration law,” the editorial stated. “The German did more to demonstrate the idiocy of the immigration law in one day than the law’s opponents have managed in months.”
Alabama is said to be courting the German automaker Audi, which is considering building a plant somewhere in the South. Hyundai is also reported to be looking for a suitable cite for an additional plant.
Meanwhile, in Mississippi state Sen. Joey Fillingane has vowed to resurrect his efforts to get an immigration ID law passed. He says he wants to borrow portions of the Alabama law that have the potential to stand up in court.
That gives fair warning to Japanese executives of the Nissan plant in Canton and the Toyota plant in Blue Springs: Keep creating jobs but get your papers in order.
5415 N Clark St
(between Balmoral Ave & Rascher Ave)
Chicago, IL 60640
Neighborhoods: Andersonville, Edgewater
(773) 907-8660
Perhaps it’s the new propensity of state lawmen to snag high-ranking executives of foreign carmakers in immigration enforcement dragnets.
Over the years, Alabama put the welcome mat out for the car manufacturers to come to the state and create thousands of well-paying jobs. But strict enforcement of Alabama’s new immigration ID laws has led to the citing of auto execs from Mercedes Benz and Honda, both of which have plants in the state.
The message to the world: The Yellowhammer State is quite selective in its exercise of Southern hospitality.
First to be arrested was a German director of the Mercedes-Benz factory in Tuscaloosa for failing to carry his driver’s license. Next came the detention of Honda manager Ichiro Yada at a checkpoint in Leeds, Ala,
Yada produced a passport, U.S. work permit, and international driver’s license, none of which satisfied Leed’s law officers . They wrote Yada a ticket and released him on a signature bond.
Police say Yada should have had in his possession either an Alabama license or one issued by Japan. The charges were dismissed only when Yada’s attorney faxed a copy of his Japanese driver’s license to the judge.
The mayor of the city of Leeds said the citation should remove any doubt “we’re going to enforce the laws of state of Alabama.”
The earlier arrest of 46-year-old Mercedes executive Detlex Hager occurred after police suspected his rental car was missing a registration tag. Police now say the car lacked a license tag.
The state’s new immigration law requires anyone stopped by police to show proper identification. After police pulled Hager over, they asked for his papers. All Hager could produce was his German identification. His passport, which shows he was legally in the country on a visa, was back at his hotel room.
Police arrested and charged him under the immigration law for not having the proper paperwork. They released him on his own recognizance after a colleague went back to his hotel room and retrieved his paperwork, news reports say. He has a court date set in the next few weeks to determine his ultimate punishment.
Published reports show 66 people have been arrested in Tuscaloosa alone since the law went into effect Oct. 1.
Mercedes started its first full year of production in Alabama in 1998, when it produced 68,800 vehicles. It was the first automaker to take a gamble on producing cars in the state.
Now Alabama has two more auto assembly plants run by foreign automakers Honda and Hyundai. Toyota and International Diesel produce engines in the state. Further, more than 90 automotive suppliers are in Alabama that serve either Hyundai, Honda or Mercedes.
The Decatur Daily News said in an editorial that the arrest of the Mercedes executive shows the folly of the state’s harsh immigration ID law. “The people of our once-hospitable state should send a thank-you card to the Mercedes Benz executive arrested Friday for violation of the immigration law,” the editorial stated. “The German did more to demonstrate the idiocy of the immigration law in one day than the law’s opponents have managed in months.”
Alabama is said to be courting the German automaker Audi, which is considering building a plant somewhere in the South. Hyundai is also reported to be looking for a suitable cite for an additional plant.
Meanwhile, in Mississippi state Sen. Joey Fillingane has vowed to resurrect his efforts to get an immigration ID law passed. He says he wants to borrow portions of the Alabama law that have the potential to stand up in court.
That gives fair warning to Japanese executives of the Nissan plant in Canton and the Toyota plant in Blue Springs: Keep creating jobs but get your papers in order.
5415 N Clark St
(between Balmoral Ave & Rascher Ave)
Chicago, IL 60640
Neighborhoods: Andersonville, Edgewater
(773) 907-8660
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Alabama's Hottest Oil Play Reivew
Over 70 wells drilled in the last eight years "only a handful have not been successful," says David Bolin, assistant oil and gas supervisor for the Alabama Oil and Gas board. Bolin says the rock formation that traps the oil in the Cedar Creek field is not the usual type that seeps into a limited, dome-shaped area. It ranges over a much wider area, at a depth of over 12,000 feet, at the top of the Smackover formation. Because of the unusual nature of the trapping mechanism, says Bolin, early seismic studies failed to detect the field's potential. Hunt Oil Co. discovered the field in 1994 but drilled only one well and sold the field to Midroc in 2000. The field had racked up a total of 7.6 million barrels of oil by end of 2008, becoming the state's largest producing field in 2005 and reversing the declining trend in the state's total oil production from 1999 to 2004.
Alabama Tax Incentives Review
Alabama has one of the most competitive business climates in the nation. The state’s tax structure includes incentives tailored to bringing in and retaining your business.The state’s tax incentives are created and administered under the Alabama Constitution of 1901 and the Code of Alabama 1975. The statutory basis for Alabama tax incentives gives industry a stable framework for long-term investment. An ADO project manager will work closely with your company to develop an incentives package uniquely designed for your company.
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